I. Since the reform and opening-up, the overall development of China chemical fiber industry is healthy and will continue to maintain stable and rapid development in future. But the industry will run in line with periodic regulation.
(I) Status and quality of China chemical fiber industry
Since the reform and opening-up, China chemical fiber industry has developed rapidly. By 2006, output for chemical fiber was 20,250,000 tons, accounting for 49.6% of total output of chemical fiber in the world; processed chemical fiber was 20,490,000 tons; exported textile garments of chemical fiber earned foreign currency of USD52.7 billion, accounting for 36% of total foreign currency earned by textile industry from export. Chemical fiber has become the most major raw materials of China textile industry and chemical fiber and its downstream processing industries have become major industries for earning foreign currency.
In addition, each year, China needs to import about 1,300,000 tons of chemical fiber, over 12,000,000 tons of raw materials for synthetic fiber and over 600,000 tons of raw materials for man-made fiber. The industry has been rather competitive in the international market, which is reflected in the six aspects as follows:
1. Industrial operation is stable and increase of total output returns to reasonable Patten.
2. Increase in industry investment goes down and investment field is adjusted.
3. Pace for elimination of low quality assets quicken.
4. Industrial structure continues to be optimized and three concentrations further develop.
5. Technology advance evidently accelerates and industrial competitiveness improves.
6. Management level of industry has significantly improved.
In 2006, three expenses of China chemical fiber industry, state-owned and state controlled enterprises (Calculated based on sales revenue of 100 Yuan) went down as compared with the same period of last year, of which, administrative expenses per 100 Yuan sales revenue decreased by RMB0.21, the most of the three expenses. Sales expenses were cut down by RMB0.17. Average productivity of labor in industry reached RMB766, 000, representing a substantial increase of 20.46% as compared with the same period of last year.
(II) Industrial economic operation in recent two years is in line with the periodic law of industry development
How to appraise the operational trend of China chemical fiber industry in the recent two years and forecast the future trend scientifically is of critical importance. When the market trend was reversed in the forth quarter of 2004, CCFA summarized, studied and analyzed seriously 31-year historic data on the development of China chemical fiber industry from 1976 to 2006 and found that periodic law exists in economic operation of China chemical fiber industry.
At the meeting held by industrial standing commission in February 2005 and the 11th International Man-made Fiber Conference, I made introduction to the audience and predicted that the year 2004 is the apex of total output value and output growth rate of the 9th cycle, which indicated that chemical fiber industry would enter into the adjustment period (1 to 2 years) of the 9th cycle. Till today, both market and statistic data support this forecast. From 2005 to 2006 is obviously the declining period. In 2005, total output value for the chemical fiber industry increased by 27.04% and output increased by 13.75%, representing a decrease of 5.04% and 6.23% respectively compared with 2004. In 2006, the total output value increased by 21.24% and output volume increased by 12.94%, with growth rate decreased 5.8 and 0.81 percent respectively compared with that of 2005. Situation of the 1st half of this year improved largely, better than that of 2005 and approaching the level of 2004.
Basically, we can confirm that the industry has been out of the bottom of the 9th cycle and is accessing to the ascending period of the 10th cycle. More details are as below:
1. Market condition
During the 1st half of 2007, market prices of most types of chemical fibers increased compared that of the same period of last year, of which, the performance of polyester, polyester staple fiber and filament and Spandex are most outstanding: by the end of June, price of spandex 30D increased by 68% and prices of viscose staple fiber 1.5D and bring viscose filament yarn 120D go up by 52% and 18% respectively.
2. Rate of operation is rising compared with the same period last year.
In general, rate of operation for the first half continued to grow. Rate of operation for most products reached the breakeven point of 85%. Certain types even almost operate in full capacity. For instance, rate of operation for viscose sector was as high as 97-98%.
3. Economic benefits for the industry obviously improved.
For the first 5 months of 2007, chemical fiber industry achieved gross profit of RMB5.116 billion, which is 2.17 times compared with the same period of last year, with net profit of RMB3.504 billion. The loss from loss-making enterprises was RMB1.121billion, reduced by 24.5%. The percentage of loss making enterprises in the whole industry was 20.65%, representing a decrease of 4.89% compared with the same period last year.
-
-
-
-
-
